Países en desarrollo lideran la acción climática

Son algunos países en vías de desarrollo, como Costa Rica e India, quienes tienen planes en marcha para cambiar sus matrices energéticas, demostrando que reducir emisiones es voluntad política.

Por Lis Piñero

Las proyecciones para el mundo que le estamos dejando a las próximas generaciones hablan de una atmósfera y un océano más caliente, más sequías e inundaciones y millones de refugiados por el cambio climático. Actualmente hemos incrementado en 1.0°C la temperatura y en aproximadamente 10 años la habremos incrementado en 1.5°C, punto de inflexión para el planeta. Los líderes del mundo acordaron en Paris, en 2016, mantener la temperatura de la Tierra muy por debajo de los 2°C y tratar de limitar el aumento por encima de los 1.5°C. Casi 5 años después, los países desarrollados continúan emitiendo a una tasa tal que, si todos los países del mundo emitieran como ellos, en 10 años la temperatura incrementaría entre 4°C y 2°C. Sin embargo, hay países que han adoptado medidas concretas para disminuir sus emisiones y cuyas proyecciones son coherentes con el Acuerdo de Paris.

¿Cuál es la situación actual?

Hay dos hechos que los detractores del cambio climático han puesto en duda. El primero es si hay cambio climático y el segundo es si el mismo es causado por el hombre. Ambas afirmaciones fueron refutadas por el Panel Intergubernamental por el Cambio Climático (IPCC), el grupo internacional de científicos de vanguardia en el tema. El cambio climático es inequívoco como lo evidencian el incremento de la temperatura promedio, el aumento del nivel del mar y el derretimiento de los glaciares. La causa del cambio climático es la emisión de gases de efecto invernadero provocada por el ser humano.

Actualmente las actividades humanas han causado un aumento de 1.0°C de temperatura por encima de los niveles preindustriales. Si seguimos sin cambio alguno, la temperatura incrementará en 1.5°C entre el 2030 y el 2050. El incremento de la temperatura en 1.5°C es el límite para conservar nuestro planeta como lo conocemos.

Según el IPCC, las predicciones futuras de un aumento de 1.5°C en la temperatura son preocupantes. Primero, habría un incremento de la intensidad de las olas de calor en 3°C. Las máximas llegan a los 45ºC en latitudes medias, por lo cual se podrían pronosticar que las máximas lleguen a los 48ºC. Esto tendría consecuencias fatales para muchas personas que deben trabajar con estas temperaturas como en Qatar y Vietnam. También habría un incremento de la intensidad y frecuencia de los eventos extremos, con el asociado aumento del riesgo de inundaciones y sequías. Además, colapsaría entre el 70 y 90% de los arrecifes de coral. Finalmente, Groenlandia quedaría sin hielo una vez por siglo durante el verano. Esto traería graves consecuencias, entre otras especies, para el oso polar que ya le está costando encontrar alimento.

Sin embargo, la predicción más aterradora es el aumento irreversible del nivel del mar que causaríamos si superamos los 1.5°C de incremento. El IPCC predice la desestabilización de los hielos de la Antártida y Groenlandia al superar los 1.5°C. Luego de esta desestabilización, aún si detenemos la emisión de gases de efecto invernadero, se desataría una reacción en cadena que terminaría con el aumento del nivel del mar por siglos más allá del 2100. Esto llevaría a que haya más de 10 millones de evacuados climáticos.

¿Qué están haciendo los países?

Para no superar los 1.5°C, las emisiones deben reducirse en un 45% para el año 2030 y deben ser 0 para el 2050. Estas reducciones deben ser acompañadas por una remoción de dióxido de carbono (CO2) de entre 100–1000 GtCO2 en el siglo XXI. Para lograr este objetivo, los países firmaron el acuerdo de Paris en 2016.

Actualmente los países están emitiendo cada vez más CO2 cada año. De acuerdo con Climate Action Tracker, un análisis científico e independiente sobre las acciones de los países firmantes del acuerdo de Paris, la tendencia es a incrementar sus emisiones. Si todos los países emitieran dióxido de carbono como USA, Rusia, Arabia Saudita o Ucrania, la temperatura aumentaría más de 4°C para el 2030. Si todos los países emitieran como Argentina, Chile y Japón, entre otros, la temperatura incrementaría entre 4°C y 3°C y si se emitiera como la Unión Europea, Australia, Brasil o Suecia, la temperatura incrementaría entre 3°C y 2°C.

Incremento de la temperatura global acorde a las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero de cada país. Si todos los países emitieran como los países en gris, la temperatura incrementaría en más de 4°C. Si todos los países emitieran como los países en rojo, la temperatura incrementaría entre 4°C y 3°C. Si todos los países emitieran como los países en naranja, la temperatura incrementaría entre 3°C y 2°C. Si todos los países emitieran como los países en amarillo, la temperatura incrementaría entre 2°C y 1.5°C. Finalmente, Si todos los países emitieran como los países en verde, la temperatura incrementaría en menos de 1.5°C, cumpliendo con el tratado de Paris.

¿Hay países que cumplan el Acuerdo de Paris?

No hay ningún país desarrollado que cumpla con el Acuerdo de Paris, de hecho, son los países que más emisiones per cápita tienen. Entre los grandes emisores se encuentran EE. UU., Rusia y Arabia Saudita, los mayores productores de petróleo crudo del mundo. Rusia no ha ratificado el acuerdo ni posee un plan para reducir las emisiones; EE. UU. ha querido retirarse del acuerdo, lo cual podrá hacer una vez pasadas las elecciones presidenciales en el 2020; Arabia Saudita ha retirado el impuesto con el que gravó por un tiempo los combustibles fósiles; Turquía invierte en plantas termoeléctricas a carbón y Ucrania, según proyecciones actuales, no realiza ningún cambio en su matriz energética. Inclusive Noruega y Nueva Zelanda, sociedades famosas por sus políticas verdes, están lejos de llegar al objetivo y no tienen planes factibles en marcha que proyecten un cambio.

Sin embargo, hay países en vías de desarrollo que mantendrían el incremento de temperatura entre 2 y 1°C. Costa Rica e India mantendrían la temperatura entre 2 °C y 1.5 °C. Aunque todavía no cumplen el Acuerdo de Paris, están mucho más cerca de su objetivo que los países con los mayores PBI mundiales, lo que delata el desinterés político por el tema.

Costa Rica

Costa Rica es un país latinoamericano muy particular. Hace 70 años que disolvieron su ejército y reasignaron el presupuesto a otros sectores como la educación, la infraestructura, la salud y el medio ambiente. El servicio de salud está rankeado mejor que el de EE. UU., su economía es estable y no hay inseguridad. Además, el 25% de la superficie del país está constituido por parques nacionales y la tasa de deforestación es casi cero.

En coherencia con la filosofía del bienestar público, Costa Rica lanzó el plan 2018-2050 de descarbonización de su economía, en el que plantea neutralizar su emisión de carbono para el 2050. Su estrategia ya está en marcha. El 98% de la energía eléctrica proviene de fuentes renovables desde el 2016 y planean alcanzar el 100% para el 2021. Adicionalmente, se prohibió la exploración y extracción de petróleo hasta el año 2050. También tienen en marcha proyectos para electrificar el transporte público. Planean electrificar trenes, buses y hasta taxis. Por último, proyectan mejorar la eficiencia del sector industrial para reducir el consumo eléctrico e incorporar mejores prácticas en la agricultura y el manejo de residuos.

La filosofía de vida de los costarriqueños es “pura vida” y la del estado de Costa Rica es medir el éxito de su política en el bienestar de la gente y no en el PBI del país.

India

India es otro líder mundial en energía renovable. Esto es importante ya que las proyecciones indican que será el país más poblado del planeta en 2030, superando a China.

Actualmente la quema de carbón constituye el 75% de la matriz energética. Sin embargo, las inversiones indias en energía renovable superan las inversiones en combustibles fósiles y las proyecciones predicen que la contribución de la energía renovable aumentaría a un 40% antes del 2030. Inclusive, las inversiones en energía solar superaron a las inversiones en carbón ya que el precio competitivo de los paneles fotovoltaicos hace factible dicho reemplazo.

Además, India es un país muy particular en el mundo ya que su crecimiento económico no ha afectado el consumo de carne per cápita. China consume 15 veces más kilogramos de carne per cápita que hace 50 años. Mientras que India, cuya población es lactovovegetariana, sigue consumiendo la misma cantidad de carne per cápita que hace 60 años: menos de 4 kg por habitante por año, muy inferior a los 110 kg de Argentina. Siendo que las emisiones de gases a nivel global se atribuyen en un 25% a la generación de electricidad y otro 25% al sector agropecuario, el consumo de carne contribuye a las emisiones. Detractores de este hecho argumentan que el ganado sólo consume pasto y no aporta nuevo carbono a la atmosfera. Si bien esto es cierto, se olvidan de que se deforesta para producir soja, la cual luego servirá para el engorde de ganado. Un estudio, publicado por el científico Joseph Poore de la Universidad de Oxford en la revista Science, obtuvo que se reduciría un 76% la tierra dedicada a la actividad agropecuaria, si se reemplazara el consumo de carne. Otro ejemplo es Argentina, donde aproximadamente el 90% de la soja producida es exportada a Asia y Europa para producción de carne en el exterior. Alimentar a 9.7 billones de personas para 2050 y mantener los bosques en pie resulta imposible de pensar con la tasa de consumo de carne per cápita actual de algunos países.   

Emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero por actividad. La producción de energía produce el 25% de gases, seguida de la agricultura y silvicultura (AFOLU) que comprende el 24%.

¿Es posible un cambio?

Actualmente, no hay voluntad política de algunos países para incorporar el cambio climático en las agendas porque las consecuencias no son inmediatas, sino que serán sufridas por las próximas generaciones. Reclamar a los gobernantes que pongan en sus agendas políticas la inversión en energías renovables y la deforestación cero, es la primera acción a tomar. La segunda acción para tomar es el cambio en los patrones de consumo. Cada uno en la medida de lo posible debería consumir menos: menos electricidad, menos carne, menos ropa, menos plástico, menos papel.

“Es de suma importancia que el sector privado se comprometa con el cambio climático” opina la Licenciada Sol García Acevedo, quien cuenta con amplia experiencia en el sector industrial. “Para ello es vital contar con empresas consientes, en búsqueda de impacto negativo cero; consumidores exigentes y responsables; y estados presentes, garantes de un marco regulatorio sólido que fomente prácticas sustentables, a través de incentivos concretos acordes a la escala empresarial”.

En 2019, Costa Rica ocupó el puesto N°12 en el índice de felicidad desarrollado por la Organización de las Naciones Unidas, estando a la altura de sociedades como los países escandinavos, Canadá y Nueva Zelanda. Este índice mide cuán felices se perciben los ciudadanos del país y replantea un nuevo paradigma de cómo medir el desempeño del país y la calidad de vida de las personas. Costa Rica demuestra que es posible una sociedad feliz y que pueda tomar en serio al planeta.

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